Trump – Summits

It’s almost impossible not to have an opinion about Donald Trump. Those who elected him think they made the right choice, and with exceptions, tend to overlook his unorthodox approach to politics. Those who didn’t vote for him are dismayed at his ignorance, his attacks on immigrants, his disdain for women, diplomacy and international accords, and how he treats his allies. They are also dismayed at his praise of authoritarian leaders such as Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.  In America’s heartland where voters see him as the man who will bring back jobs and prosperity, Trump is a hero. Elsewhere, Trump is described by such words as ignorant, clinically insane, uninformed, a bull in a china shop, inept, isolationist and treasonous.

Foreign relations in shambles 

Trump has polarised domestic politics, seriously tarnished the reputation of the United States, and left foreign relations in shambles, all of which is highly disconcerting for millions of Americans. This has led to an almost palpable sense of dread for the billions of people who live in various countries outside the US. This summer Trump has met with Kim Jong-Un, the leaders of the G7, NATO, and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. Trump’s deference to Kim Jong-Un and Vladimir Putin was in stark contrast to his public disdain for Canada’s Justin Trudeau, England’s Theresa May and Germany’s Angela Merkel.

In a matter of months, Trump has initiated trade wars with China, Europe, Mexico and Canada, while publicly praising Kim and Putin. Viewers around the world also saw Trump’s egotistical need to be adored and his love of lavish ceremony. However, in such a high-stakes game as international politics, should we not expect more substance? Especially since Kim and Putin both lead countries that developed nuclear weapons. And that was because US actions led them to fear attack from the United States.

In Singapore Trump and Kim agreed to pursue de-nuclearisation, though Trump seems to have forgotten that means no nukes for all countries. Wishful thinking at best!  What’s too often missing in our 24-hour news cycle is context. How many media also mentioned that North Korea honoured an agreement in the 1980’s to limit nuclear arms until President George W. Bush changed his mind and decided to brand North Korea as part of the Axis of Evil. In June 2002, Mr. Bush also withdrew from the landmark 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The ABM treaty basically ended the nuclear arms race in long-range missiles. Though it didn’t cover short and medium-range missiles, the treaty was considered a “cornerstone of strategic stability” that made it easier to reach later agreements on reducing nuclear arsenals.

Nuclear responsibility or idle talk?

After Trump and Putin held their private talks in Helsinki, Putin told reporters that the U.S. and Russia had a “special responsibility for maintaining international security”. He also said Moscow was ready to discuss extending a new START treaty. The current Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in 2021. Trump eagerly agreed saying “Ultimately, that’s probably the most important thing that we can be working on.” Is Putin’s suggestion just talk as many arms experts suggest? The US currently deploys nuclear missiles in Poland and Romania. How would Americans feel if Russia deployed nuclear missiles off the eastern seaboard? Talks to reduce nuclear missiles at least appear reasonable. Why spend billions of dollars on new nuclear missiles when the US and Russia together have more than 13-thousand nuclear missiles between them? That’s 92 per cent of all the weapons of mass destruction in the world. However, building more arms does mean money and jobs, and that’s bound to go over well in the US heartland.

Does Trump mean what he says, or is he being used? Let’s not overlook that Trump’s National Security Advisor, John Bolton, has a long record of opposing nuclear arms agreements. Let’s also not forget that the US is behind more foreign wars over the past 60 years than North Korea or Russia.

    Putin says “Men in dark suits” tell US presidents what to do. Is that why Trump constantly back-tracks?  – because he’s getting flack for forgetting or ignoring his orders? Trump looks as if he is in over his head. Although he seems comfortable with chaos and keeping others on edge, he has no idea how he comes across, and appears to naively believe he can fix the wrongs of this world on his own. Trump is little more than a symptom of a greater malaise in the United States. The problem is, he is also a catalyst whose every action has become suspect.  For a leader of a country as powerful as the United States, having a president whose every word affects such basic concepts as ethics, democracy, press freedom, economics, international trade, and foreign relations, this has dangerous consequences.

Deceptive Narratives

In politics, and especially in international relations, what you see is not always what you get. Recently, in a televised address from a US military base in Fort Myer, Virginia, President Donald Trump announced that he would send more troops to Afghanistan. Even though Trump called for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan during his election campaign for the presidency, he said that he had changed his mind and planned to step up the war against Islamic terrorism. Trump said that Afghanistan would come under greater pressure to reform its military, and root out corruption in its bureaucracy. “Our support is not a blank cheque. Our patience is not unlimited.” He also said that Pakistan had to stop providing a haven for terrorists, warning that Islamabad would have “much to lose” if it didn’t comply. Citing “principled realism”, Trump said his approach was different from the Obama administration because it allowed military commanders to make key decisions based on “conditions on the ground and not arbitrary timetables”. There were few details about how many troops would be sent, or how long they would stay in Afghanistan. However, in June 2017 Trump agreed to increase the current US force of 4800 soldiers in Afghanistan by 3900. The Pentagon delayed the extra deployment while awaiting a strategy. The US Secretary of Defence, James Mattis, said in addition to the extra deployment, several NATO allies have also “committed to increasing their troop numbers” above the current thirteen-thousand NATO troops in Afghanistan. Continue Reading »

Washington Manoeuvres

Tensions between Washington and Pyongyang appear to have gone down a notch from boil to simmer as diplomatic efforts continue in an effort to prevent full-scale conflict. After days of incendiary comments from the leaders of the United States and North Korea, both seem to be stepping back a step. After receiving plans from his generals to launch missiles into waters off the US territory of Guam, North Korea’s state news agency says Pyongyang will monitor what the United States does next before deciding whether to launch the missiles. Kim Jong Un says he will go through with the launch if the “Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity.” Less than a week earlier, Kim Jong Un threatened to fire missiles at Guam after President Donald Trump warned North Korea that it would “be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen” if it makes more threats against the United States. Days after his warning President Trump played down tensions with North Korea by announcing an investigation into China’s trade practices. With what seems a deliberate distraction caused by Trump’s ambiguous statements on violence at a Unite-the-Right rally in Virginia, the public seems to have forgotten the situation in North Korea. Continue Reading »

On The Move

Since the end of the Second World War, we have become accustomed to seeing the influence of the United States and Britain in the Middle East. In 1943 President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had already declared that « the defence of Saudi Arabia was vital to the defence of the United States. » (1) On his way home from the Yalta Conference in February 1945 after meeting with Stalin and Churchill, Roosevelt met with King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia on board the USS Quincy. Their agreement, the Quincy Pact, was not revealed for several years. It offered Saudi Arabia US protection from external enemies in exchange for secure access to future supplies of oil. Although there is some question as to whether they actually signed such an accord, the fact remains that the US has provided protection to the Saudi Kingdom, and received billions of barrels of oil since that time, echoing Roosevelt’s sentiments of 1943. Continue Reading »

Game Plan

Woody Island and Mischief Reef sound like names out of a Hardy Boys mystery, complete with mysterious goings-on to capture our imagination. However, instead of being off the shores of Bayport, the home of our amateur sleuths, they are part of the Paracel and Spratly island chains in the South China Sea. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan all claim the islands because they are not only believed to contain oil and gas deposits, their placement would also confer greater influence over one of the world’s most strategic waterways.

These hundreds of islands are little more than reefs, shoals and sandbars that normally merit little notice. However, since the summer of 2014, China has sent dredgers to an estimated half-dozen islands in the Paracel and Spratly chains to suck up sand from the shallow depths to build the reefs up. According to surveillance photos published by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, an arm of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, China has started building installations on now reclaimed islands. (1)

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